
Will there be 25 or more people in space orbiting earth at the end of 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ2252027
25%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
the current record is 19, just set this month
https://www.space.com/new-record-19-people-orbiting-earth-soyuz-iss
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
So that means Virgin Galactic doesn't count.
https://www.space.com/human-spaceflight-record-20-people-in-space-2024
Presumably New Shepherd similarly doesn't count as not in orbit.
Perhaps ought to clarify whether orbit around Moon or on Moon or cislunar orbit count? (Since Artemis III NET Sept 2026.)
People are also trading
Related questions
How many people will be in space at the start of 2027?
12.7
Will there be 30 people in space at any moment before 2030?
23% chance
Will there be 50 people in space at any moment before 2030?
28% chance
How many people will be in space on 1 January 2030?
18
Will there be 100 people in space at the same time before 2030?
15% chance
How many satellites launched in 2026?
6,820
How many satellites launched in 2026?
Will more than 50 people have landed on the Moon by 2040?
79% chance
Will there be ten or more starships that depart for mars in 2026?
1% chance
Will 10 or more people be alive on the moon at the end of 2034?
28% chance