🏅 Top traders

UNOOSA register at 2799 for 2024. There is now 109 2025 launched satellites that have recently been added to the register. Could be more that show up later and while I don't expect 201 more (mainly because planet4589 shows 2857), I am not sure how long we will have to wait to be confident enough. Just noting the numbers in case showing the progression helps. I think I am already confident about 3500 and higher numbers.

UNOOSA register now at 2849 very close to planet4589's 2857 a difference of just 8 so lets see if it settles close to these numbers.

@mods inactive creator @Eliza resolved 2000 markets

https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx?lf_id=
filter by year shows 2557 for 2024

So over 2500 can resolve yes.

Over 3000 and higher are likely to eventually need to resolve no as
https://planet4589.org/space/stats/out/satannual.txt
usually catches a few more than the UN register, is updated to 31 Dec 2024 and shows 2855 for the year so we can expect UN register to catch up and probably report around 2840-2855 but may take a month or two to get there. Guess that is still unclear enough that we have to wait to resolve 3000. Maybe 3500 upwards are clear enough?

@ChristopherRandles I resolved the 2500 to Yes. Ping the mods again when you are confident about the other options.

@mods
Two Source seemed to have converged to very similar numbers.
The resolution source https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx?lf_id= to 2849, and
https://planet4589.org/space/stats/out/satannual.txt 2857

All the recent additions to the UN register are for 2025. 2025 has increased from 110 to 387 without the 2024 total increasing at all.

So I now think it is sensible to be confident that the total is less than 3000 and the question should be resolved accordingly.

@ChristopherRandles I'm happy with that after reviewing this market in the past. Let's resolve those and be done with it.

@Eliza Thank you for the report.

@Eliza Looks like someone already resolved it.

UN register now showing 2450

Last Starlink satellites on register is from 13th Dec
Since then large multiple satellite launches not on register include
Dec 21st 30 Sats Bandwagon-2
Dec 23rd 21 Sats Starlink 12-2
Dec 29th 22 Sats Starlink 11-3

That takes us to 2523

There are more to go on the register Planet 4589 has 2710 to Dec 15th.

Currently showing 2396
plus 103 listed below =2499

but more inclined to trust the 2710 to Dec 15th than 2396 to Dec 8th

Elsewhere posted

Currently showing 19887 with last launch shown Starlink 8 Dec 2024.

Since then
Starlink 11-2 22 sats 13/12/24
NROL-149 20 sats 17 Dec
Bandwagon-2 30 sats 21 Dec 2024
Starlink 12-2 21 sats 23 Dec 2024
totals 93 sats
9 other orbital launches for at least 10 sats have happened

This gets us to 19990, so getting very close.

However there are likely more
https://planet4589.org/space/stats/out/satannual.txt
shows us at 20304 to 15 Dec 2024

Excluding 2024 planet4589 has 17594 compared to UNOOSA's 17491 so very similar numbers just 103 different 0.6%. So it is very likely there are more prior to 8 Dec 2024 that haven't yet made it to the UNOOSA register. I am much more inclined to trust planet4589 numbers as being more up to date such that we will get to 20000 sats launched per UNOOSA even if there isn't another starlink launch this year (2 planned)

@angus Top 2 can resolve
https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx?lf_id=
filter by year
Launch Year 68

• 2024 2021

• 2023 2892

• 2022 2477

• 2021 1813

@mods creator seems inactive .

Above shows 2080 for 2024 bottom right of image. So < and > 2000 markets can resolve no and yes..

@ChristopherRandles Alright, looks good to me.

Arb opportunity on the less than 2000 and >2000 option, I believe