Basic
12
Ṁ1202025
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Using the 100 km Karman line as the barrier. The current record is 19, set in 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight_records#Human_spaceflight_firsts
This would not count any flights by Virgin Galactic as they do not go up to 100km.
There are currently 10 people in space as of April 12, 2024 (check the current number at https://whoisinspace.com/) and there is a scheduled Blue Origin space tourism flight, but that would only bring us to 16. To set a new record, we will probably need a confluence of an ISS or Tiangong crew change happening at the same time as a space tourism flight.
If Wikipedia records a new record for number of people in space (100km), this resolves to YES.
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