Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025? (tentative criteria)
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ5772
2026
11%
chance

[these resolution criteria are a work in progress for the next several days and may change. caveat mercator]

Resolves YES if either of the following:

  • The Associated Press and the New York Times both report that the People's Republic of China has launched a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.

  • At least 1,000 military personnel or at least 1 tank from the People's Liberation Army have been deployed (this can mean dispatched with intent to land but is blocked by taiwanese forces, or they make landfall) to Taiwan for the purpose of putting the sovereignty of the main island under PRC rule

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Ṁ1,000
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