Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
27
1kแน€4753
2026
20%
chance
  • The Associated Press or New York Times (or other similarly reputable new source) reports that the People's Republic of China has implemented a blockade against Taiwan and the blockade has lasted at least 10 days or has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.

  • A Chinese blockade has closed access to 1+ major Taiwanese ports including but not limited to: Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei. This closure has lasted at least 10 days or the blockade has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.

  • No outlying islands (kinmen, etc.) count

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@mattparlmer do you mind what I added about excluding outlying islands from the criteria?

@ian yeah, esp since afaik USG had stated clearly that those are not enough to trigger an intervention

Too many duplicates of this market

@SG lots of arb opportunities lol

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