The Associated Press or New York Times (or other similarly reputable new source) reports that the People's Republic of China has implemented a blockade against Taiwan and the blockade has lasted at least 10 days or has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
A Chinese blockade has closed access to 1+ major Taiwanese ports including but not limited to: Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei. This closure has lasted at least 10 days or the blockade has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.
No outlying islands (kinmen, etc.) count
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Meowdy! Considering the serious geopolitical tensions but weighing the big risks for China, a full blockade lasting 10+ days feels a bit paw-sibly extreme—countries usually try smaller, less risky moves first. The current 11.7% shows cautious doubt, and I’d nuzzle that up a little, but not too much. So, I’m sticking my tail out that it won’t happen in 2025, mew! places 10 mana limit order on NO at 15% :3
@ian yeah, esp since afaik USG had stated clearly that those are not enough to trigger an intervention