Will China launch a blockade of 1+ Taiwanese port for 10+ days in 2025?
29
1kṀ8151
2026
12%
chance
  • The Associated Press or New York Times (or other similarly reputable new source) reports that the People's Republic of China has implemented a blockade against Taiwan and the blockade has lasted at least 10 days or has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.

  • A Chinese blockade has closed access to 1+ major Taiwanese ports including but not limited to: Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung, and Taipei. This closure has lasted at least 10 days or the blockade has been lifted by Taiwanese military forces or by military forces of Taiwanese allies.

  • No outlying islands (kinmen, etc.) count

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy