Will this idea for enhancing intelligence in adult humans through genetic engineering work?

Biology Biotech Foresight Vision Weekend 2023

Basic

Ṁ2.0k

2025

20%

chance

ALL

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JEhW3HDMKzekDShva/significantly-enhancing-adult-intelligence-with-gene-editing

Resolves YES if they manage to elevate the IQ of five or more adult humans by at least one standard deviation. Resolves NO if the project is stopped or doesn't get off the ground.

I might slightly update resolution criteria if I hear good arguments for doing so.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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bought Ṁ50 NO

Probably nature/evolution so far has gotten the maximum, and more inteligence will come only by other means...

By when?

predicts YES

@PeterBarnett Ever. Seems a lot of uncertainty about how long this will take. But the market will resolve YES as soon as they do it, and NO if they don't get off the ground or stop. If they do get off the ground it'll resolve NO if they say they're not longer pursuing research.

And "they" here just means whoever is doing the research. If the guy who wrote this post dies, or the starts a company, but then the lab is transferred to another company it will not resolve NO (unless they decide to give up on the project).

betting no; if it works I'll use my mega-brain to make up the lost profit

bought Ṁ100 NO from 24% to 22%

I bumped into the guy who wrote this and it seems there is still ongoing research. 2025 is very soon and 1 stddev is a LOT. I'd like to see 2-5-10 year markets with smaller but sustained and validated gains.