Will this idea for enhancing intelligence in adult humans through genetic engineering work?

1kṀ3881

Dec 31

24%

chance

ALL

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JEhW3HDMKzekDShva/significantly-enhancing-adult-intelligence-with-gene-editing

Resolves YES if they manage to elevate the IQ of five or more adult humans by at least one standard deviation. Resolves NO if the project is stopped or doesn't get off the ground.

I might slightly update resolution criteria if I hear good arguments for doing so.

Biotech

Biology

Foresight Vision Weekend 2023

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 50+ points before 2030?

5% chance

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points before 2030?

6% chance

When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

12% chance

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

9% chance

Will there be a survivable way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM by the end of 2030?

8% chance

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

22% chance

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

39% chance

Will there be a genetic engineering method capable of changing an adult's chromosomal sex by 2100?

51% chance

When will some country do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?

7 Comments

31 Holders

74 Trades

Sort by:

bought Ṁ50 NO

Probably nature/evolution so far has gotten the maximum, and more inteligence will come only by other means...

By when?

predictedYES

@PeterBarnett Ever. Seems a lot of uncertainty about how long this will take. But the market will resolve YES as soon as they do it, and NO if they don't get off the ground or stop. If they do get off the ground it'll resolve NO if they say they're not longer pursuing research.

And "they" here just means whoever is doing the research. If the guy who wrote this post dies, or the starts a company, but then the lab is transferred to another company it will not resolve NO (unless they decide to give up on the project).

@hmys oh 2025 is not the right close date?

sold Ṁ10 NO

+1 that the market should ensure resolution within some non-infinite period of time

betting no; if it works I'll use my mega-brain to make up the lost profit

I bumped into the guy who wrote this and it seems there is still ongoing research. 2025 is very soon and 1 stddev is a LOT. I'd like to see 2-5-10 year markets with smaller but sustained and validated gains.