By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations? | Manifold

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

22

1kṀ527

2051

22%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Full question:

By 2050, it will [] be possible to increase a healthy adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days.

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Anthis Big Questions

Differential Psychology

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Sort by:

Does it require the treatment being worth >=2 std on 100% of people who haven't had it? Or would increasing any adult's IQ by that much count?

What about treatments that work on 10% of the population? And 1%

See also the negated version of this question:

(It's the exact same question, I'm just curious which title phrasing gets more interest.)

Related questions

By the end of 2050, it will not be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 50+ points before 2030?

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Will this idea for enhancing intelligence in adult humans through genetic engineering work?

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points before 2030?

Will there be a survivable way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM by the end of 2030?

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

Will average IQ in developed countries drop 15 points or more by EOY 2098?

When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?

Related questions

By the end of 2050, it will not be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points before 2030?

Will there be an affordable non-invasive way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 50+ points before 2030?

Will there be a survivable way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM by the end of 2030?

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of an 18-28 y/o adult 25+ points with under $1 MM before 2030?

Will this idea for enhancing intelligence in adult humans through genetic engineering work?

Will average IQ in developed countries drop 15 points or more by EOY 2098?

Will I believe that Klotho gene therapy in adults is a nontrivial cognitive enhancer (order of >5 IQ pts) EOY 2025?

When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules