When will there be a confirmation* of an adult human, whose IQ score was improved by 15 by gene-editing?
10
153
1.2K
2050
38%
Other
17%
[2050-2099]
10%
[2037-2049]
6%
2030
4%
2035
3%
2034
3%
2033
3%
Before 2026
3%
2032
3%
[2031
3%
2036
2%
2029
1.8%
2028
1.8%
2027
1.6%
2026

*Confirmation: Article in one of The Economist, NYT, Nature, or Science.

Based on LessWrong comment:

'gain of several standard deviations'

'we could have something working within 5 years, which might be soon enough to significantly impact the trajectory of AI.'

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLr6TJj2qRrBa3Wmu/intelligence-enhancement-monthly-thread-13-oct-2023

I'll add years beyond 2030 if necessary.

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bought Ṁ20 of [2031 NO

Advance commitment: I'm holding YES on "others" because I think the proposed technology is unlikely to ever work, let alone in 20 years.
As the market makers split off new options, do not interpret my position as a YES for these years as an actual YES. I likely have not had the chance to sell that position yet.

@jgyou actually, I'm not sure how manifold deals with that? if 2036 is added, are YES positions on others converted to NO on 2036? Some leeway here @SG

@jgyou Lemme test that for you now

@jgyou Other@63% split up into 2036@28% and Other@46%. How about your position?
(unrelated, I like your dashboard: https://manifold.markets/dashboard/-infectious-disease-epidemiology)

Confirmed, I'm a YES holder. I guess this means the ideal question design is to have a separate fixed cutoff option like "after 2050" or something like that.

sold Ṁ8 of 2036 YES

.. and I sold too quickly and forgot to look but I still have the same other position, and had a bit of Mana on 2036 yes. someone traded on your split so I'm unsure of how big it was.

@jgyou I don't think anybody can see your yes position on 2036 - or any new answers, so nothing to worry about :)

[2031

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