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If I understood correctly, this question doesn't really look at the start of a recession but when the Sahm rule is triggered. This indicator is at 0.43 now (June update). The threshold is 0.5. It's highly likely that we'll go above 0.5 by the end of this year. Would this mark the beginning of a recession? That's a different question...

@mods can you please resolve accordingly? (Sahm rule triggered now at 0.53 per the link posted in the description)

in the future we'll be editing titles so this confusion doesn't happen

Yes, it would be better. Also, the question's author often clarifies the resolution criteria in the comments below but does not modify the description. If the discussion is long, most people won't see these comments. Only the description (potentially updated after discussions) should count.

US or global? What counts as a recession? Must it be formally declared by some body?

@Epsilon US recession