Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)
99
1.6K
11K
Dec 31
32%
chance

I am incentivized to try and resolve this as YES. I will be betting in this market as well. I've left a 30,000 Mana limit order at 30% as a baseline.

Get Ṁ200 play money
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Is anyone interested to take my position here? Let me know if you put up a limit order and I'll sell into it paying the fees.

fuh is banned. Is his real name known so this market can still be resolved?

@AlexbGoode I can verify it.

@AlexbGoode Lots of people know his real name.

@nikki That's good news. any chance you also know how the rebuttal for ICML went?

@AlexbGoode What happened?

@Paul Alt-accounts used for bonus farming (again)

ICML reviews are due tomorrow!

@firstuserhere Care to share your scores? It would inform chances for a possible NeurIPS re-submission in June.

sold Ṁ852 NO

@firstuserhere are you able to provide a personal assessment of how this is going?

Did you submit to icml?

predicts YES

is this also supposed to be unranked? This one has external source verification

bought Ṁ100 NO from 47% to 46%
boughtṀ3,203YES

@Mira Any new information or just the normal end-of-season market manipulations?

predicts YES

@AlexbGoode I'm curious as well

How many papers does your research group submit to NeurIPS and ICML each year and how many get accepted? Knowing how to get through the review process is at least as important as good research.

predicts NO

@AlexbGoode I'd like to bet much more here. But without an answer the information asymmetry between us is to large.

predicts YES

@AlexbGoode I recently left my job a month ago so that I could freely take out some time and explore a few different projects, before joining somewhere new. Currently, I am involved in 3 projects that I am excited about.

Two of them are with independent researchers, and in the preliminary stage. I also am pursuing a project with a research group, the lead of which has published before to ICML, but not NeurIPS (to my knowledge, haven't looked it up yet).

predicts NO

@firstuserhere So you are not affiliated with a research lab? Is there a publication record for the project with the independent researchers? AIstats, AAAI, ICLR or JMLR? Any other less competitive venues? I am asking to get an idea of how far to deviate from base rates.

Are you planning to submit to ICML in January? Otherwise there is only NeuRIPS left as an option anyway.

Are you first author in these projects?

predicts YES

@AlexbGoode

  1. I am not yet affiliated with a research lab. There is track record for independent researchers, for both neurips and icml, though most of them I know personally, and don't know the actual stats. Can't imagine them being very high. However, also having talked to several people over the last month at both OpenAI and Anthropic about my projects in the mechanistic interpretability of LLMs (and other models), i feel confident in doing good research.

    1. unrelated to these, a personal project i'm doing is similar to toy models of superposition by anthropic but for non language models. Another personal one is about studying the training dynamics in a suite of language models.

  1. Yes, there are plans for 2 of the projects to submit to the ICML.

    1. Yes, also considering other venues (being vague rn on purpose, will not be on a later date), as well as stuff like BlackboxNLP

  1. Yes, I am either the first or second author.

  1. Eh, why not?

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Not sure if much relevant but i have written two theses (one for a master's degree) and have pursued independent research projects in college

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@firstuserhere for what it's worth, you seem to be providing some decent reasons for thinking you are doing "good research," but in the scope of all good research, even specifically the scope of all good technical AI/ML research, only a tiny fraction is a good fit for NeurIPS and ICML.

Also note that competitiveness varies a lot across subfield and method (e.g., theory, NLP, optimization, benchmarks).

Should I bet Yes or No

predicts YES

@8 yes for longer term profits, no for shorter term profits

predicts NO

@firstuserhere how the tables have turned