Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
72
2.2kแน110k2026
4%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Needs to stay up for >3 consecutive weeks at least.
By @firstuserhere I mean me, the person behind the handle.
If the page is about "firstuserhere" in a context where it's me, then resolves yes. If it's some other firstuserhere, then no. If it's my given name, then yes. Or if it's a pseudonym that is mine, then yes.
Goes without saying that I'll reveal identity at a later date, for confirmation to this market.
I will bet YES because this sounds like a cool thing to have and I'd like it to happen.
If Wikipedia ceases to exist by then, resolves N/A.
Its possible for the page to be made after I am no longer alive, so resolves to NO after the close date if no wikipedia page, or to YES if yes wikipedia page, regardless of dead or alive
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the percentage of wikipedia users who donate at least one time reach 4% in the next 3 years (2026)?
54% chance
Will there be a major decentralized Wikipedia competitor before 2031?
22% chance
Will Wikipedia still be in the top 10 most visited websites at the end of 2025?
85% chance
Will Wikipedia be up at wikipedia.org in 2030?
92% chance
Before 2027, will there be an AI-written competitor to Wikipedia which I prefer over 2024 Wikipedia?
28% chance
Will Wikipedia still exist in 2100?
60% chance
Will there be an official Toki Pona Wikipedia EOY 2030? ๐ฃ๏ธ๐๐๐
84% chance
Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)
5% chance