Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)

#Celebrities #Internet #Wikipedia #Unranked #firstuserhere's personal manifold corner

742

Ṁ99k

Ṁ2.2k

2026

14%

chance

ALL

Needs to stay up for >3 consecutive weeks at least.

By @firstuserhere I mean me, the person behind the handle.

If the page is about "firstuserhere" in a context where it's me, then resolves yes. If it's some other firstuserhere, then no. If it's my given name, then yes. Or if it's a pseudonym that is mine, then yes.

Goes without saying that I'll reveal identity at a later date, for confirmation to this market.

I will bet YES because this sounds like a cool thing to have and I'd like it to happen.

If Wikipedia ceases to exist by then, resolves N/A.

Its possible for the page to be made after I am no longer alive, so resolves to NO after the close date if no wikipedia page, or to YES if yes wikipedia page, regardless of dead or alive

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ100 of YES

I think this is 1k subsidy, not 1M

sold Ṁ1,495 of YES

I'm so pissed about this.

Manifold was lagging and just as I was pressing sell on a market in my portfolio where I had 100 mana... The page shifted. And I sold everything here. And now my account is -7k in balance and a massive profit loss.

predicts NO

@SirSalty Some good user feedback for Manifold here.

Why is this one ranked, but not the bestseller market?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@Simon74fe Honestly I think I just missed it when I was going through and tagging all the big personal goal markets where the creator bet. The guidelines are a little fuzzy but this probably should be unranked, IMO.

english wikipedia?

predicts YES

@sbf Yes!

predicts YES

When do you plan to reveal your identity?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing When it seems relevant. (ex: i publish a bestselling book, write a NeurIPS paper etc, and a proof is a nice gesture to let others validate the claims)

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Please prove me wrong :)

So it resolves no if you cease to exist by then but do have a Wikipedia page?

predicts YES

@AndrewHebb Its possible for the page to be made after I am no longer alive, so resolves to NO after the close date if no wikipedia page, or to YES if yes wikipedia page, regardless of dead or alive

predicts NO

@firstuserhere So the statement "If I cease to exist by then, resolves NO." is false.

predicts YES

@AndrewHebb fixed

bought Ṁ10,000 NO

echo -e $FUH_REALNAME | sha256sum
2ff1e303a51f9601bba580ba37a732478809a9f7e3841c393aff0b90d7477bb8  -

Am I right @firstuserhere?

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington yep

predicts NO

@firstuserhere I won't tell anyone

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington half the people here know 😆 but thanks

predicts NO

@firstuserhere Oh ok lol. And I thought I figured out something obscure!

predicts NO

fyi that's not a very good way of keeping something private. unless you have a very strange firstname or lastname that's very crackable. (i don't think it matters here though)

predicts YES

@jacksonpolack I do have a relatively rare firstnamelastname combo, and i'm not trying to hide the name anymore, really

predicts NO

@jacksonpolack I think it might be borderline rare enough, but fair point. Should have concatenated it with his mother's maiden name and government ID number to be sure.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington aha! so its a him! oh wait.. its me lol

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Needs to stay up for >3 consecutive weeks at least.

This might be too low, 3 weeks is enough for someone who's committed enough to just try multiple times and wait for wiki procedure to be slow

But other than that, it's not that easy to get a wikipedia page. Plenty of influential rationalists don't have wiki pages. I don't think any of the AI interpretability people have wiki pages

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@jacksonpolack hmm I have no idea about Wikipedia guidelines. I'll look into it and see if 3 weeks minimum is a sensible duration. The spirit/point is that it needs to not be taken down immediately or just be up for the sake of manipulation of markets

predicts NO

there's not really a guideline for how long an article should stay up, it's mostly just how long it takes volunteers to go through the process of deciding if it's sourced or not and then actually getting to taking unsourced article down.