Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)
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Plus
82
180k
2027
15%
chance

From Wikipedia:

Well-known bestseller lists in the U.S. are published by Publishers Weekly, USA Today, The New York Times and The Washington Post. Most of these lists track book sales from national and independent bookstores, as well as sales from major internet retailers such as Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble

If the book I author appears in Publishers weekly, NYT, Washington Post or USA today as a bestselling book, before the close date, then this market resolves yes.

If all of these lists cease to exist, then resolves N/A. if any of them still operate, then they count.

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Maybe I'm not understanding this but apparently only 0.1% of published books are best sellers. Anyways, I like the ambition

@ItsMe you're using the wrong group when calculating base rates. Consider base rates of someone who's been top writer on fanfic or Wattpad like sites

@firstuserhere Can you link any of your writings?

I doubt you'll get it but I don't doubt it enough not to take a 400% payout

firstuserhereboughtṀ334YES

@firstuserhere Any updates?

predicts YES

@Simon74fe no, just saw the limit orders were depleted + had spare mana

fun fact, with enough money you can cheat your way onto these lists by buying truckloads of your own books, which is how a lot of the books get on the bestseller lists.

predicts NO

Just to warn you all, I think this market might be cursed:

where does co-authoring fall?

predicts YES

@MichaelWheatley If the co-authoring is a significant enough thing to make it so that both authors share the authorship, then it counts. Assistance to another for writing their book doesn't. Something like Good Omens counts:

@firstuserhere Thanks. I was afraid of another AI Letter situation so I'm trying ot work out all the angles.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

If I lose this bet I will pirate your book to recoup my losses.

@jskf I will upload the EPUB to wherever libgen points to, myself xD

predicts NO

your publisher might not like that!

I've never authored a book before.

predicts YES

@firstuserhere the longest thing I've ever written was 8 years ago, a 15k word long story centred around death and regret.

(Excluding any theses written)

@firstuserhere do you intend to write a book?

predicts YES

@Stralor YES! I have wanted to for many years and have written short stories and even attempted Nanowrimo challenges! Speaking of that, maybe I could do it this year as well, would be a fun exercise

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