Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the political party (or parliamentary group / Fraktion) that wins the most seats (a plurality or majority) in the German Bundestag following the next scheduled German federal election (expected in 2029, or earlier if a snap election is held before the end of 2029).

• Primary Source: Official final election results certified and published by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin / Der Bundeswahlleiter) at bundeswahlleiterin.de.

• The market resolves to the single party or joint parliamentary group listed in the options:

  • CDU/CSU (treated as their traditional joint Fraktion, or credited together if listed as the Union).

  • SPD (Social Democratic Party)

  • AfD (Alternative for Germany)

  • Alliance 90/The Greens

  • The Left (Die Linke)

  • BSW (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht)

  • Other (resolves if any other party or independent bloc wins the plurality of seats).

• If two or more parties tie for the highest number of seats, the party receiving the higher share of second votes (Zweitstimmen) according to the official tally will resolve YES.

• Note: Because Germany operates under a coalition parliament where single-party absolute majorities are historically rare, "control" is defined strictly by the plurality of seats won, unless the market creator specifies that it refers to the party of the appointed Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler).

Background

• Under the German electoral system, voters cast two votes: a first vote (Erststimme) for a direct constituency candidate and a second vote (Zweitstimme) for a state party list, which primarily determines the proportional representation of parties reaching the 5% threshold (or winning 3 direct mandates under previous rules, as revised by electoral reforms).

• The CDU (Christian Democratic Union) and CSU (Christian Social Union in Bavaria) traditionally contest different regions and form a single combined parliamentary group (CDU/CSU-Bundestagsfraktion) in the Bundestag.

• German governments are almost universally formed through multi-party governing coalitions rather than single-party majorities. Plurality winners typically receive the first mandate to negotiate a governing coalition.