Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST). The current ceasefire is already in a status I would describe as "probably over," but I would not count a stabilization of the current two-week ceasefire as a second ceasefire. If on April 23nd or later, media consensus (CNN, BBC, WaPo, etc.) is that the war is back on, any further mutually confirmed and initiated ceasefire this year will then resolve the market Yes. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments. The spirit of this market pertains to the current cessation, a potential resumption, and then a new cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran.
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@Mochi The market is about 2026. It resolves No if the event doesn't occur by the end date, as stated in the first sentence of the description.
@Panfilo if war is not back on and there is another ceasefire, the market resolves No?
@Panfilo what if the current ceasefire expires, there is no extension, but there is no crossfire either, and then there is a second ceasefire?
@vdb That's a second ceasefire, but media consensus would have to generally agree with that odd sequential phrasing. If they were saying things like "the ceasefire has continued with a new reaffirmation after some ambiguity in late April" then that would not count. The spirit of the market pertains to whether there will be a resumption of hostilities and then another material pause, so I will in most edge cases focus on that.
@Panfilo if the current ceasefire expires, there is no extension, but there is no crossfire either, and then there is a second ceasefire, you would resolve No because there is no resumption of hostilities?
@vdb Can you give me an example of a prior conflict in which the thing you're describing happened and was described in similar terms by a media consensus?
@Panfilo The question stands still. That I can't give an example does not mean that it did not happen in the past, or that it won't happen in the future.
If the current ceasefire expires, there is no extension, but there is no crossfire either, and then there is a second ceasefire, you would resolve No because there is no resumption of hostilities?
@vdb I would leave it open and consider it a de facto extension unless the media widely accepted your framing.