Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
48
Ṁ100Ṁ3.2kDec 31
35%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting. If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@bens why is that specifically - I'm curious what developments there are causing this realization . I.e., what's the latest development
@GazDownright well, I think when I created it, the scenario seemed really unlikely (market priced it at about 15%) and now it seems eminently plausible
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
65% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
53% chance
Will America send troops to Iran?
63% chance
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
62% chance
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
18% chance
100 US troop killed in action with Iran by April 2026?
13% chance
Will the US put (ro)bots on the ground in Iran in 2026?
40% chance
Will there be US troops in Iran’s Kharg island before April 1?
40% chance
Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
8% chance