Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
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Ṁ100Ṁ1.6kDec 31
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Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.
Resolves to a consensus of popular reporting. If there's an estimate like "about a thousand", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.
I will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@bens why is that specifically - I'm curious what developments there are causing this realization . I.e., what's the latest development
@GazDownright well, I think when I created it, the scenario seemed really unlikely (market priced it at about 15%) and now it seems eminently plausible
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