Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement between the US/Israel and Iran is announced and takes effect by April 30, 2026. The agreement must be explicitly labeled as a ceasefire or peace agreement by at least one of the parties involved or by a credible international mediator (UN, major news outlets, or official government statements). Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the US State Department, Israeli government, Iranian government, or established news sources reporting on the agreement.

Background

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran, assassinating Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other Iranian officials. Iran responded with missile and drone strikes against Israel, US bases, and US-allied countries in the Middle East. Iran has asserted that Lebanon must be included as part of a ceasefire deal, thereby making a ceasefire conditional on an end to the 2026 Lebanon war against Hezbollah. Iran rejected the 15-point peace plan presented by the US. Pakistan is facilitating "indirect talks" between the US and Iran, with 15 points proposed by the US being deliberated upon by Iran. US envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed presenting 15 points to lead to a "peace plan" through Pakistan as a mediator. Iran countered with its own five conditions in return, including war reparations and rights over the Strait of Hormuz for Iran.

Considerations

Iran has made a ceasefire conditional on an end to the 2026 Lebanon war against Hezbollah, which adds a significant precondition to any potential agreement. Additionally, Trump extended a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz to April 6, 2026, suggesting ongoing negotiations with compressed timelines as the April 30 deadline approaches.

This description was generated by AI.