Given the questionable status of the current ceasefire, this market will resolve Yes if that ceasefire ends AND a new ceasefire begins by the end of 2026 (December 31st, 11:59pm EST). The current ceasefire is already in a status I would describe as "probably over," but I would not count a stabilization of the current two-week ceasefire as a second ceasefire. If on April 23nd or later, media consensus (CNN, BBC, WaPo, etc.) is that the war is back on, any further mutually confirmed and initiated ceasefire this year will then resolve the market Yes. Feel free to ask calrifying questions in the comments.