Will the US and Iran exchange prisoners or hostages by April 30, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ2Apr 30
12%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the US and Iran conduct any exchange of prisoners, hostages, or detained persons by April 30, 2026. This includes exchanges facilitated by intermediaries.
Context: The two sides have been exchanging messages via intermediaries in Pakistan and other countries, but no face-to-face talks have occurred. Iran has demanded reparations, sanctions relief, and guaranteed ceasefire as conditions.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
US - Iran nuclear deal by end of June?
50% chance
Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?
17% chance
Will there be one more ceasefire agreement between US/Israel and Iran till the end of April 2026?
71% chance
Will the US-Iran conflict end by 30th April?
22% chance
Will the US conduct additional airstrikes on Iranian soil before April 25, 2026?
98% chance
Will the US and Iran reach a formal nuclear deal framework by July 1, 2026?
30% chance
Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
48% chance
Will Iran retaliate against the US naval blockade by July 1 2026?
78% chance
If the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
16% chance
Will The US Hold Captive A Iranian Leader By 4th Of July?
26% chance