Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States captures and holds in custody any Iranian leader or senior government official. "Captive" means physically detained by U.S. forces or allies, with the person unable to leave. Resolution requires credible reporting from major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.) confirming the detention. The market resolves NO if no such capture occurs by December 31, 2026.

Background

Former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a U.S.-Israeli strike in February 2026, and Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, was announced as the new supreme leader on 9 March. Ali Larijani, one of the Islamic Republic's most experienced political insiders, was assassinated on March 17, 2026. The U.S. and Israel have conducted extensive military operations against Iran's leadership structure, but capturing rather than killing Iranian officials represents a different operational objective.

Considerations

Capturing a living Iranian leader would represent a significant escalation in U.S.-Iran hostilities and a departure from the current pattern of targeted strikes. Iran's leadership has dispersed and hardened security protocols following the February-March 2026 attacks. Any capture would likely trigger major international diplomatic consequences and potential hostage-taking by Iran in retaliation.

This description was generated by AI.