Resolves YES if the S&P 500 index closes at a level that is 20% or more below its all-time closing high at any point before June 30, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

The S&P 500 is down ~7% year-to-date. Goldman Sachs warns severe oil disruptions could drag it to 5,400 (a 22% decline from January peak). Moody recession model at 49% probability. Oil price spikes have preceded every US recession since WWII except COVID.