Will the S&P 500 close up or down by more than 5% in 2026? | Manifold

Will the S&P 500 close up or down by more than 5% in 2026?

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Resolves YES if the S&P 500 posts a daily gain or loss of more than 5% (close to close). I'll use https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data or a similar data source.

Compare: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index#Largest_daily_percentage_changes_each_year

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