Will the S&P 500 close up or down by more than 5% in a day in 2026?
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Ṁ1kṀ5.1kJan 1
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Resolves YES if the S&P 500 posts a daily gain or loss of more than 5% (close to close). I'll use https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data or a similar data source.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Market was at 19% when I bet; I have it around 4%. No 2026 session has even reached a 3% move (biggest so far +2.91% on 3/31 and -2.64% on 6/5), daily volatility is low, and only ~55 trading days are left. Days with 5%+ moves tend to come in crisis stretches, and this isn't one yet. Data: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S%26P_500_Index
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