Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% in one day in 2026?
3
1kṀ221
2027
41%
chance

Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.

  • Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.

  • Weekend closes count: The market will consider close-to-close price movements from Friday to Monday as a single day-to-day comparison for the purposes of determining if there was a >5% decrease.

Market context
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