Will the S&P 500 fall more than 50% from its all time high by Jan 1, 2040?
2
100Ṁ165
2039
16%
chance

This market resolves to YES if at any point between now and January 1, 2040, the closing price of the S&P 500 falls more than 50% from its all-time high closing price at the time this market was created or from a new all-time high reached after this market was created. Only closing prices will be considered.

For example:

  • The S&P 500 current closing ATH is
    6,144.15. If it falls below 3072.28 (50% drop) at any point before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.

  • If the S&P 500 reaches a new ATH (e.g., 10,000) and then falls below 5,000 (50% drop from that new ATH) before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to YES.

  • If the S&P 500 never falls more than 50% from its ATH before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to NO.

If the S&P 500 no longer opens and closes, then intraday prices will be considered instead.

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