Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in one day in 2026, 2027, 2028 or 2029?
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19%
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Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.
Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.
Weekend closes count: The market will consider close-to-close price movements from Friday to Monday as a single day-to-day comparison for the purposes of determining if there was a >5% decrease.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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