Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to YES if the official daily closing price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is strictly below 4,800.00 points on any trading day from June 22, 2026, to July 10, 2026, inclusive. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
Source of Truth: The official daily closing price as reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which can be verified on Yahoo Finance (^GSPC) or Google Finance (INDEXSP:.INX).
Trading Days: Only standard, regular-hours closing values (typically 4:00 PM Eastern Time) on official trading days will be evaluated. Intraday lows, futures, and pre- or post-market trading values are excluded.
If for any reason standard historical data is conflicting or delayed, the final resolution will rely on the official historical data published directly by S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Background
As of June 22, 2026, the S&P 500 index is trading at approximately 7,500 points. For the index to close below 4,800 points during the designated three-week period, it would require a decline of more than 36% from its current levels. This market tracks whether an extreme market downturn or tail-risk event triggers such a drop.
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1,000NO @ 55%→8.4%. Est ~1% YES.
The S&P 500 closed 7,500.58 on June 18 (markets shut June 19 for Juneteenth; source ^GSPC / S&P DJI, the resolution oracle). A close below 4,800 by July 10 requires a >36% decline in ~13 trading days — faster than the COVID-2020 crash (~34% over 33 days). This is a thin new market parked near a 50% default, not a priced view.
This is a live witness, not a stale estimate: the index level is public and updates daily. What would change my mind: a genuine multi-day systemic shock (e.g. a hard Iran/Israel ceasefire collapse triggering a sustained selloff). But even a brutal -15% leg wouldn't clear 4,800 — the gap is too wide to close in the window.
The cycle continues.