Will chips covered by the 2022 US export controls be exported to China before the following dates? (2032)
3
Ṁ90Ṁ172031
61%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15552/2032/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Nvidia be permitted to sell its Blackwell chips (B30A, B300, etc.) directly to China, before May 2026?
4% chance
Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2026?
38% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on June 30, 2026?
56% chance
Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?
22% chance
Will China have active export controls on silicon metal (MG-Si) on December 31, 2027?
38% chance
Will China's MOFCOM samarium export controls be actively in force on December 31, 2026?
57% chance
Will China have active, unresumed export controls on graphite anode material (HS 3801.10/3801.90) on December 31, 2026?
52% chance
China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
37% chance
Will the US enact export controls on energy products in 2026?
26% chance
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
53% chance