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MANIFOLD
US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026
6
Ṁ1kṀ604
Dec 31
49%
chance

Market resolves YES if credible government agencies, security firms, or major news outlets report that US export restrictions contributed to documented cases of large-scale AI chip theft, on scale over $2M, whether stolen during delivery or from datacenters. (Theft implies that chip senders/owners must be against it.)

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bought Ṁ14 NO

Smuggling appears more risk free than outright theft.

reposted

The idea is that restrictions may backfire in a whole lot of ways.