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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of selenium on December 31, 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ28
Dec 31
38%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has imposed export controls or licensing requirements on selenium (Se metal or Se compounds). Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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