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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of mercury on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
Dec 31
17%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering ordinary elemental mercury metal, HS 280540. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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