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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of cerium on December 31, 2026?
0
Ṁ100
Dec 31
86%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering cerium metal, oxide, hydroxide, carbonate, cyanide, or other cerium compounds listed under HS 28053015 and 284610. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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