Will China restrict exports of heavy water on December 31, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering reactor use heavy water above 200 kg of deuterium per recipient per calendar year and a deuterium to hydrogen ratio above 1:5000, HS 2845100000. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 93% chance (2 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).

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