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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of lead on December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ95
Dec 31
6%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement covering ordinary lead ores and concentrates, HS 260700, or unwrought lead, HS 7801. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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