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MANIFOLD
Will China restrict exports of hafnium on December 31, 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ41
Dec 31
88%
chance

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement scoped exactly to hafnium metal, alloys above 60% hafnium, compounds above 60% hafnium, covered articles, waste, or scrap under item 1C231. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

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