Will China restrict exports of hafnium on December 31, 2026?

Question

Resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (23:59 China Standard Time), China has an operative commodity-specific export prohibition, quota, or licensing requirement scoped exactly to hafnium metal, alloys above 60% hafnium, compounds above 60% hafnium, covered articles, waste, or scrap under item 1C231. Resolves NO otherwise.

Resolved from official MOFCOM and General Administration of Customs announcements, supported by major news and trade-press reporting.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Very likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 83% chance (1 traders, as of Sep 28, 2026).

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