Will ceasefire between US and Iran hold the two weeks announced by Trump ?
35
Ṁ100Ṁ984Apr 22
32%
chance
14
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If either side (US/Iran) officially stop the ceasefire it's a NO
If we get to the two weeks and get an extension of the ceasefire between (US/Iran), or a peace deal it's a YES
If Israel continue it's offensive on Lebanon I will not consider it as an end to the ceasefire by itself.
If hostilities between Iran and Israel start over but the ceasefire continue between US and Iran, it's a YES
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Define 'hold'?
Will both sides (US/Iran) claim it is still a thing? Probably a buy.
Will all sides (including proxies) actually stop firing? Sell to zero...
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