Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump publicly announces or confirms that the United States is abandoning military operations against Iran. This includes statements indicating a ceasefire, withdrawal of forces, or cessation of hostilities. The market resolves NO if military operations continue beyond April 28th without an official abandonment announcement.

Background

On February 28, 2026, Trump released a video statement saying the purpose of US strikes in Iran was effectively regime change. On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran targeting the country's leadership, security forces and nuclear programme and missile sites, aiming to induce regime change in Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other top officials, including the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have been confirmed killed in US-Israeli strikes. A recent Reuters survey suggested that only about one-quarter of Americans support the war.

Considerations

The objectives and justification for the war have remained fluid more than 48 hours into the conflict, with Trump and his proxies not being aligned on their narrative. While the US has kept the door open for the involvement of ground troops in the war, the move would pose an increased risk to American forces and mark a stark departure from Trump's stated preference for swift military campaigns.

This description was generated by AI.