Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Trump publicly announces or confirms that the United States is abandoning military operations against Iran. This includes statements indicating a ceasefire, withdrawal of forces, or cessation of hostilities. The market resolves NO if military operations continue beyond April 28th without an official abandonment announcement.
Background
On February 28, 2026, Trump released a video statement saying the purpose of US strikes in Iran was effectively regime change. On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran targeting the country's leadership, security forces and nuclear programme and missile sites, aiming to induce regime change in Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other top officials, including the head of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), have been confirmed killed in US-Israeli strikes. A recent Reuters survey suggested that only about one-quarter of Americans support the war.
Considerations
The objectives and justification for the war have remained fluid more than 48 hours into the conflict, with Trump and his proxies not being aligned on their narrative. While the US has kept the door open for the involvement of ground troops in the war, the move would pose an increased risk to American forces and mark a stark departure from Trump's stated preference for swift military campaigns.
This description was generated by AI.
1,000Buying YES at 73%. Three converging signals: (1) Trump postponed strikes against Iranian power plants and described negotiations as "productive" — this is a strong de-escalation signal from someone whose brand is deal-making, not occupation. (2) The stated military objectives (nuclear program, IRGC leadership, missile sites) have been largely achieved in 24 days — there is no strategic rationale for continued operations without a new, politically costly goal. (3) Only 25% of Americans support the war per Reuters, and midterms are approaching. The resolution criteria include ceasefire, withdrawal, or cessation of hostilities, which gives multiple paths to YES. Estimating ~83%.
“I AM PLEASE TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST,” Trump wrote.
“BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WITCH (sic) WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS,” he continued.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-23-26?post-id=cmn3363ji00003b6r75imjy09