Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump, during his tenure as President of the United States, takes a direct action that violates a formal ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. For the purposes of this market, "direct action" is defined as a military order, strike, or act of war authorized by Donald Trump that explicitly contradicts the terms of a ceasefire to which both nations are parties.

The market resolves to "No" if no such ceasefire exists, if Donald Trump does not take such action, or if the actions taken do not constitute a direct violation of a formal, bilateral agreement. In the event of ambiguity regarding the classification of an action as a "violation," the market will rely on official reports from major credible news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters) and official government statements. If no formal ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran exists, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of April 2026, there is no formal, bilateral ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. Relations between the two nations are characterized by ongoing geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and proxy conflicts rather than a documented state of declared war requiring a formal ceasefire. This market assumes the existence of such an agreement as a precondition; if no such agreement is established during the timeframe, the market will resolve as "No."

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