A grand coalition is if S enters a coalition with either SD, M, or both. Update 2026-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market will resolve based on which bloc actually manages to form a government after the election.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, S led bloc, followed by Right led bloc and Grand coalition are most likely. See the market for live updates (3 traders, as of Aug 24, 2026).

Who will win the 2026 Swedish Riksdag elections?

MANIFOLD

Who will win the 2026 Swedish Riksdag elections?

Ṁ1.1kṀ244

Sep 13

ALL

79%

S led bloc

15%

Right led bloc

Grand coalition

A grand coalition is if S enters a coalition with either SD, M, or both.

Update 2026-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market will resolve based on which bloc actually manages to form a government after the election.

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I assume this is about which bloc actually manages to form a government after the election? Because the left bloc could win a majority of seats, but still be unable to form a coalition government, which could lead to a grand coalition forming a government (or a new election).