Who will win the 2026 Swedish Riksdag elections?
3
Ṁ1.1kṀ244Sep 13
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
79%
S led bloc
15%
Right led bloc
6%
Grand coalition
A grand coalition is if S enters a coalition with either SD, M, or both.
Update 2026-08-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market will resolve based on which bloc actually manages to form a government after the election.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
I assume this is about which bloc actually manages to form a government after the election? Because the left bloc could win a majority of seats, but still be unable to form a coalition government, which could lead to a grand coalition forming a government (or a new election).
People are also trading
Related questions
🇸🇪 Will Sweden’s Social Democrats win at least 31% of the vote in the September 13, 2026 general election?
46% chance
Will the Sweden Democrats beat their 2022 vote share (20.54%) in the September 2026 Riksdag election?
30% chance
2026 Swedish general election prop bets (Add Answers)
Liberals still in Riksdag after next election?
24% chance
Which minor party will enter the Riksdag next?
Will nacionalists win Sweden elections in 2026
2% chance
Will Sweden Democrats back or be in government after next election?
Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
37% chance
Which Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?
Who will be the next Swedish prime minister?