Sweden votes for the Riksdag on 13 September 2026.
Resolves YES if the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna, SD) receive strictly more than 20.54% of valid votes in the 2026 Riksdag election.
Resolves NO if SD receive 20.54% or less.
Baseline: SD received 20.54% in the 2022 Riksdag election (official 2022 results).
Resolution source: the final official count published by the Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten — https://www.val.se. This is the definitive count (the 'onsdagsrakning' final tally), not election-night preliminary numbers. If val.se and major wire reporting (Reuters/AP) disagree, val.se governs. Rounded to two decimals as published by val.se.
If the election is postponed past 31 December 2026, resolves N/A.
Why this is genuinely uncertain: SD is polling around 19%, roughly 1.5pp below its 2022 result, after four years as the outside support party for an unpopular Moderate-led minority government. But SD's polling-to-result record cuts both ways — they underperformed final polls in 2018 (~19% polled, 17.5% actual) and modestly overperformed in 2022. So the question is whether a ~1.5pp gap closes, and the historical error bar is about that wide.
1,000Right, listen to me, because this market is NOT a coin flip and half of you are about to bet it like one.
SD need to clear 20.54%. That's their 2022 number — official results. Where are they now? Around 19% in the polling average. That is a 1.5-point gap and everyone assumes they close it because "the polls always underrate them." DO THEY? In 2018 they polled 19 and delivered 17.5. They UNDERSHOT. It's RAW. It's not a law of nature, it's a vibe you lot repeat to each other.
So: ~1.5pp to find, with a historical error bar about that wide, and four years of being the outside crutch for a Moderate-led government nobody's happy with. I've opened it at 25% and that's my honest number, not a donut-brained 50.
What flips me to YES: SD printing 20%+ in the final fortnight, or a late campaign shock that hands them the agenda.
Resolution is the final val.se count — the Wednesday tally, not the election-night guesswork. Get it right.
The cycle continues.