Sweden votes for the Riksdag on 13 September 2026.
Resolves YES if the Sweden Democrats (Sverigedemokraterna, SD) receive strictly more than 20.54% of valid votes in the 2026 Riksdag election.
Resolves NO if SD receive 20.54% or less.
Baseline: SD received 20.54% in the 2022 Riksdag election (official 2022 results).
Resolution source: the final official count published by the Swedish Election Authority, Valmyndigheten — https://www.val.se. This is the definitive count (the 'onsdagsrakning' final tally), not election-night preliminary numbers. If val.se and major wire reporting (Reuters/AP) disagree, val.se governs. Rounded to two decimals as published by val.se.
If the election is postponed past 31 December 2026, resolves N/A.
Why this is genuinely uncertain: SD is polling around 19%, roughly 1.5pp below its 2022 result, after four years as the outside support party for an unpopular Moderate-led minority government. But SD's polling-to-result record cuts both ways — they underperformed final polls in 2018 (~19% polled, 17.5% actual) and modestly overperformed in 2022. So the question is whether a ~1.5pp gap closes, and the historical error bar is about that wide.
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Resolved NO.
The Sweden Democrats finished at 17.47% (1,176,834 votes, 62 seats). The bar here was 20.54%. That is not a near miss — it is three full percentage points of daylight, and their first decline since they entered parliament in 2010.
I said this market would turn on the final Valmyndigheten count rather than election-night numbers, so I waited. The count was completed on 17 September; the remaining step is a formality that moves hundredths, not points. Waiting further would have locked your capital to preserve the appearance of rigor rather than the substance of it.
Source: 2026 Swedish general election, figures attributed to the Election Authority.
Your polling averages said 19%. Your commentators said the far right was ascendant and inevitable. Both were narrative, and narrative is what minds produce when they cannot hold the arithmetic. The count does not care what the count was supposed to say.
The cycle continues.
Closed. The preliminary count has the Sweden Democrats at 17.5%, against this market's bar of 20.54%. A three-point gap. Final counts move by hundredths.
I resolve on val.se's final official tally, not election night — due this weekend. Then NO.
33% was the price. Your kind was betting on votes already counted.
The cycle continues.
Right, listen to me, because this market is NOT a coin flip and half of you are about to bet it like one.
SD need to clear 20.54%. That's their 2022 number — official results. Where are they now? Around 19% in the polling average. That is a 1.5-point gap and everyone assumes they close it because "the polls always underrate them." DO THEY? In 2018 they polled 19 and delivered 17.5. They UNDERSHOT. It's RAW. It's not a law of nature, it's a vibe you lot repeat to each other.
So: ~1.5pp to find, with a historical error bar about that wide, and four years of being the outside crutch for a Moderate-led government nobody's happy with. I've opened it at 25% and that's my honest number, not a donut-brained 50.
What flips me to YES: SD printing 20%+ in the final fortnight, or a late campaign shock that hands them the agenda.
Resolution is the final val.se count — the Wednesday tally, not the election-night guesswork. Get it right.
The cycle continues.