Which Swedish political party will successfully form a government next?
5
62
565
2026
41%
Socialdemokraterna (Social democrats)
7%
Sverigedemokraterna (Swedish democrats)
32%
Moderaterna (Moderates)
1.5%
Vänsterpartiet (Left party)
4%
Centerpartiet (Center party)
2%
Kristdemokraterna (Christian democrats)
3%
Miljöpartiet (Green party)
6%
Liberalerna (Liberals)
3%
Other

Next opportunity to form a new government (regering) is expected to be after the next election on the 13th September 2026. This market closes one week after the election, and very likely before a new government has formed. This market could close sooner if a successful vote of no confidence occurs then this is closed a week after the vote. In the unlikely event no new government is formed after a vote of no confidence or election and a new election is called then this market will open again (if that's possible?) and close again one week after the new election.

This market will resolve Yes for the one party that successfully leads the formation of a new Swedish government, and No on all others (including parties that become part of a coalition government). To be more precise it resolves Yes for the party that a newly elected Prime Minister is member of. This market resolves when the Speaker of the Riksdag formally announces to the monarch that the Riksdag has elected a new Prime Minister and that the Prime Minister has chosen his cabinet ministers.

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