Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
41
Ṁ1kṀ12kresolved Sep 15
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election
20.5% of the votes in 2022.
If 20.5% this resolves NO.
If Sweden Democrats have changed name, but are the same party, the result still counts.
If Sweden Democrats are not part of the 2026 elections, this resolves NO.
If Sweden Democrats split into multiple parties, they are not aggregated, but I will rule on which one is closest to the original (presumably one that doesn't change its name).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"Botten Ada", which is like FiveThirtyEight but for Swedish elections, estimates there's a 58% chance that this resolves YES (Swedish source).