Will the Sweden Democrats increase their share in parliament in the Swedish 2026 general election?
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á¹€1ká¹€4.2kSep 21
36%
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Swedish_general_election
20.5% of the votes in 2022.
If 20.5% this resolves NO.
If Sweden Democrats have changed name, but are the same party, the result still counts.
If Sweden Democrats are not part of the 2026 elections, this resolves NO.
If Sweden Democrats split into multiple parties, they are not aggregated, but I will rule on which one is closest to the original (presumably one that doesn't change its name).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"Botten Ada", which is like FiveThirtyEight but for Swedish elections, estimates there's a 58% chance that this resolves YES (Swedish source).
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