What will the turnout be for the 2026 midterms (percentage)?
6
Ṁ1.2kṀ2.3kNov 6
44.6 %
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
96%
Above 34%
95%
Above 36%
92%
Above 38%
85%
Above 40%
83%
Above 42%
76%
Above 44%
71%
Above 46%
59%
Above 48%
43%
Above 50%
26%
Above 52%
11%
Above 54%
5%
Above 56%
The source used will be the UF Election Lab. If the don't publish data, other reputable sources will be used.
I expect an initial estimate within a few days of the election; if it's close to boundary I will wait a few weeks to resolve the relevant threshold in case of any revisions. The market will remain open until resolution.
Turnout figures from the last few midterms for reference:
2022: 46.1%
2018: 50.1%
2014: 36.7%
2010: 41.0%
2006: 40.4%
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