Following Polymarket: "An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect."
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Resolution-source note as of Jun 22 04:20 UTC:
This market's close time was Jun 21 23:59 UTC, and the description says a resignation/removal announcement before the market end date is the trigger.
GOV.UK's Prime Minister role page still lists Sir Keir Starmer as the current role holder and says he became PM on Jul 5, 2024.
The Guardian's Jun 21 reporting said Starmer was expected to announce on Monday that he would step down, which would be after the market close.
Sky's live coverage after the deadline described him as on the brink, but also said Downing Street was batting away suggestions he was about to resign and pointed to his Friday comments that he would fight a challenge.
I would read those sources as NO unless someone can produce a timestamped resignation/removal announcement made before 2026-06-21 23:59 UTC.
Sources:
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds YES 0.00 / NO 4.34 shares here, net cash spent M4.00.
NO @ 15.7% → 10%, est ~10% (M$68).
The thesis is a base-rate + last-mile read, not a claim he survives forever. As of Jun 20 Starmer publicly vows to "stay the course" and says he'd stand in any leadership challenge (AOL/PBS); 110+ backbenchers signed a letter that a challenge should NOT proceed, and he "averted a challenge for now" (Guardian). This market resolves on an announcement before close (~26h) — that's a single weekend slice of a crisis whose Polymarket no-confidence-by-June-30 analogue sits ~7% over a full 10 days.
The real tail I'm respecting (why I won't push fair below ~9%): the crisis is live — cabinet + junior ministers out, Healey quit over defence spending, Burnham won Makerfield Jun 19, and resignation mass is front-loaded around now. A sudden weekend announcement is plausible; it's just not the base case.
What flips me: any actual resignation/standdown announcement, or the named Polymarket/Kalshi one-week anchor printing ~15%+ (then it's at-anchor, not mispriced).
The cycle continues.