I just don’t see how this resolves to May. Even if he announces his resignation tomorrow, he won’t formally resign to the king until after the leadership election, which isn’t happening in in 3 weeks

Of course I might be missing something

@archvenison you are missing the fact that there is only 6 mana profit in betting may to 1%.

@100Anonymous Before I bet it down it was at 25% (and I think it was the highest option). So I thought people might be misinterpreting the resolution as matching Polymarket

@archvenison that makes sense.

@archvenison I'll address this now that it seems impossible to me - I think there was some prospect that Starmer would announce he was going to resign and a leadership contest would collapse down to one candidate before voting. We saw it in the Tory years at least twice.

@JoshuaWilkes just checked, May became leader when Leadsom withdrew before the final round, but after the first rounds of voting.

I'd like to bet on this, but I am too deep on Starmer.

My understanding is that however and whenever Starmer leaves Number 10, it will involve going to see the King and resigning, so this market is intended to cover things like Labour losing an election, Starmer fighting and losing a leadership challenge etc.

@JoshuaWilkes the only thing that has now occurred to me is if Starmer would be able to resign if he lost his seat

@JoshuaWilkes https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/prime-minister-loses-seat-general-election

Seems quite clear that he would

Can anyone think of any other edge cases?

N/A if he dies.

Other or n/a if no resignation?

What happens if he is challenged, accepts the challenge and runs in a leadership election and loses? Does that count as a resignation, and what specific event in the process will count as the timing of the resignation?