Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on when Starmer formally resigns to the King, regardless of the reason for leaving office. This includes scenarios such as: Labour losing an election Starmer losing a leadership challenge Any other circumstance that results in him leaving Number 10 Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if Starmer dies while in office.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by June 2026 and May 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (41 traders, as of Apr 27, 2026).

Keir Starmer Resignation Month

Ṁ250Ṁ6.1k

2028

0.1%

November 2025

0.1%

December 2025

0.1%

January 2026

February 2026

0.1%

March 2026

April 2026

16%

May 2026

21%

June 2026

July 2026

51%

Other

Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves based on when Starmer formally resigns to the King, regardless of the reason for leaving office. This includes scenarios such as:
- Labour losing an election
- Starmer losing a leadership challenge
- Any other circumstance that results in him leaving Number 10
Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to N/A if Starmer dies while in office.

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UK Politics

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My understanding is that however and whenever Starmer leaves Number 10, it will involve going to see the King and resigning, so this market is intended to cover things like Labour losing an election, Starmer fighting and losing a leadership challenge etc.

@JoshuaWilkes the only thing that has now occurred to me is if Starmer would be able to resign if he lost his seat

@JoshuaWilkes https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/prime-minister-loses-seat-general-election

Seems quite clear that he would

Can anyone think of any other edge cases?

N/A if he dies.

Other or n/a if no resignation?

What happens if he is challenged, accepts the challenge and runs in a leadership election and loses? Does that count as a resignation, and what specific event in the process will count as the timing of the resignation?