Hopefully this lasts the full two weeks. Rounds down to the lowest integer.
I will not bet on this market. I will resolve using reliable news sources and my best judgment.
Update 2026-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The clock starts from the time the ceasefire is confirmed
If the ceasefire never starts, the market resolves as 0
Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The ceasefire has started; the clock is now running.
Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will resolve based on the balance of probability that the ceasefire was broken, using their best judgment as more information becomes available.
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Some news outlets are claiming it was violated already. Are we cooked, chat?
https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-08-2026
https://www.npr.org/2026/04/08/nx-s1-5777291/iran-war-updates
@JohnSmithb9be I assume that it won't count as actually over unless Iran and US begin hostilities again though? I still have no idea whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire to begin with considering US and Israel are saying no while Iran and Pakistan are saying yes, but does it matter regardless as long as Iran and the US don't begin attacks again? Although obviously, the lebanon strikes might be a dealbreaker for Iran.
@Dssc I’m waiting for better information, honestly. If it looks like the balance of probability is that ceasefire was broken, I will resolve it accordingly.
It sure would have been neat if the terms of the ceasefire were readily and publicly available, though!
@FecalAbhuman it rounds down to the nearest integer, so if it doesn’t last a full day, that counts as zero days.
@JohnSmithb9be I'm still a bit concerned it will be very difficult to tell when/if the ceasefire fails to hold. It sounds like you're planning on using "news headlines" -- that could be very black and white or it could be murky if the ceasefire "kinda holds" while proxies or other combat is still ongoing.
@Eliza I respect that it can be difficult to make decisions under uncertainty but if you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.
@2ndPairofBoots You pay 10,000 mana and the market gets 5,000 mana into the liquidity pool so traders have more to win if they are right, and also it goes near the top of the home page list so more people see it.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen from the time the ceasefire is confirmed. If it never starts, it resolves as zero I guess.