Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026. If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.

Background

As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan. This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.

President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement. Reports indicate that the discussions are complex, with conflicting public positions on key issues such as control of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of U.S. sanctions, nuclear enrichment, and the regional presence of military forces. Concurrent reports suggest significant internal instability within the Iranian leadership, with intelligence assessments citing the incapacitation of the Iranian Supreme Leader.

This description was generated by AI.