Three prongs:
1) China agreeing to AI pause or
2) open AI having $3T revenue or
3) open AI having 80% of global compute by eoy 2028
Inspired by my offer to @ScottAlexander on Twitter
https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1909178653050880152
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about the first resolution criterion, the creator has indicated that 'China agreeing to AI pause' is a reference to a specific narrative or context called 'the deal'.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the first criterion, the market will resolve to YES if China agrees to a deal or slowdown, even if it is not enforced.
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the criteria for $3T revenue and 80% of global compute, the creator has clarified that these apply exclusively to OpenAI. Other entities, such as Google, will not be considered.
1,000