"AI 2027" report's predictions borne out by 2027?
220
1kṀ110k2026
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/introducing-ai-2027
This market resolves in January 2027. It resolves YES if the AI Futures Project's predictions seem to have been roughly correct up until that point. Some details here and there can be wrong, just as in Daniel's 2021 set of predictions, but the important through-lines should be correct.
Resolution will be via a poll of Manifold moderators. If they're split on the issue, with anywhere from 30% to 70% YES votes, it'll resolve to the proportion of YES votes. Otherwise it resolves YES/NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Which "AI 2027" predictions will be right by Late 2026?
Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?
18% chance
Which AI 2027 ending will the next three years look more like?
Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?
64% chance
Which AI will be the best at the end of 2025?
As predicted by AI 2027, will AI surpass all living humans in coding ability by January 2027?
32% chance
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
4% chance
What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2026?
60% chance
What AI safety incidents will occur in 2025?