hi, I came here cause I'm curious about the attached pic; I'd like to know if there are other questions on manifold on subsets of the claims in the AI2027 report/story/post/podcast;

thanks & best & may humanity suit you ^^

<humor> if i win, at least i will die rich in mana

no matter what happens 30% is shockingly high for any individual scenario. There must be at least 10 plausible scenarios and so 10% is at most reasonable.

@YuxiLiu This market is only on the up through end of 2026 portion of the scenario, and more importantly, it doesn't have to be precisely accurate to resolve yes. The prediction written in 2021 that got "the important through-lines ... correct" had incorrect details such as massive changes to our epistemic landscape online due to automated propaganda.

I mostly see this market as similar to predicting if the METR trendline of increasing task horizons plays out through EoY 2026, & reasoning paradigm models continue making impressive improvements on coding/math/verifiable problem solving. There's a bit more that has to happen, but not a ton.

People making these kinds of AI predictions dramatically overrepresent even the current capabilities of AI and ignore the physical limitations of the computer systems that AI models run on. We are far more likely in an AI bubble that will burst as a ceiling of processing capability is reached in the next 1-2 years.

@RyanPorter AI is already setting US trader policy 😜

@AlexanderTheGreater https://manifold.markets/Balasar/does-manifold-think-that-the-trump

@Balasar despite making this joke I don't know what to actually believe

I made a related market for individual 2026 predictions. Since they claim that uncertainty increases beyond that I think its a good indicator of how everything is going to turn out. Help adding questions wanted!

https://manifold.markets/BayesianTom/which-ai-2027-predictions-will-be-r

2027 is representative of a median (50%) forecast, and there are of course other uncertainties aside from the timeline itself. So 30% seems a bit overpriced even if the scenario is directionally correct.

I’m conflicted between:

1. This sounds extremely outlandish and science fiction when you read all the conclusions (post-scarcity society, solving medicine/nuclear fusion/gene editing, datacenter of geniuses

2. It’s done by some of the smartest people I’ve read who make truth their number one goal, and have thought for a long time about what’s the most true possible reality

This is fantastic science fiction.

The heuristics "trust Eli Lifland" and "never trust a plan that requires more than three different things to go right" are currently battling for dominance in my head

@MingCat Eli AND Daniel (plus Scott thrown in for free) is definitely making me take this super seriously. Which is awkward because I have a lot of bets implying AGI by ~2027/2028 is significantly less than 30% likely. XD

😆 great comment.

@MingCat Do note that Eli's median timelines are a bit longer than the scenario: see the first graph in https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast. (and I agree with him fwiw).

Timelines Forecast — AI 2027

AI 2027 predicts AIs with superhuman coding ability in 2027. This supplement details our model for forecasting when the Superhuman Coder milestone will be achieved, building off METR's time horizon work, and justifies why we think it’s plausible it is achieved by 2027.

@MingCat note that January 2027 is still early/normal, lots of the contingent things happen later in the scenario.

It might be better to break down the predictions and have markets for different claims.

@ConorHartin I think most of those already exist in some form or another