For each option:
Resolves YES if at least one player fails to advance from the listed day of FOLDED. If no one is eliminated that day, resolves NO. If FOLDED ends before the listed day, it also resolves NO.
I will periodically add days to this market if the experiment continues for long enough.
People are also trading
@mods Can we get NO resolutions through September 20?
Same for these markets:
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-folded-end?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play-NcZdpts5Oq?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
@mods no one was eliminated today. Evan had other FOLDED markets that close daily as well (there's a dashboard)
@SimonWestlake what do you suggest (as I do not think mods will want to close & reopen this daily). perhaps just set the close date to be far enough out, people can trade freely, & then do a batch of resolves later once folded ends? or what would be best?
@Ziddletwix Definitely valid.
Most of the markets only need resolution when something happens, and we can just ping the mods for resolution as-needed. The close dates can be set arbitrarily far out for those.
That leaves these three markets:
https://manifold.markets/evan/on-which-days-will-a-player-be-elim
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-folded-end
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play-NcZdpts5Oq
The first two should close on December 31st, and the third should close on October 31st. Regular resolution of past options is very helpful on these. Would the mods be willing to do weekly resolutions of expired options on them?
As a side note, I'd love to be the one to take over making new FOLDED markets once that becomes needed again, but I'm pretty strongly disincentivized from doing so as long as my own markets don't count towards league results. Last month, my net league profit was 3,463, and 1,421 of that was from FOLDED markets. I'd have gotten 10th place instead of 4th without the FOLDED profit.
@Ziddletwix Note that I've heavily edited my previous comment, you should refresh the page if you were already reading it
@evan Everyone's checked in today (except for Bandors who has never checked in and isn't a real player).