On which days will a player be eliminated from FOLDED?
26
4.1kṀ20k
2026
1%
Day 57 (14 September 2025)
1%
Day 58 (15 September 2025)
4%
Day 59 (16 September 2025)
4%
Day 60 (17 September 2025)
4%
Day 61 (18 September 2025)
4%
Day 62 (19 September 2025)
7%
Day 63 (20 September 2025)
13%
Day 64 (21 September 2025)
13%
Day 65 (22 September 2025)
13%
Day 66 (23 September 2025)
13%
Day 67 (24 September 2025)
13%
Day 68 (25 September 2025)
13%
Day 69 (26 September 2025)
13%
Day 70 (27 September 2025)
13%
Day 71 (28 September 2025)
13%
Day 72 (29 September 2025)
13%
Day 73 (30 September 2025)
13%
Day 74 (1 October 2025)
13%
Day 75 (2 October 2025)
13%
Day 76 (3 October 2025)

For each option:
Resolves YES if at least one player fails to advance from the listed day of FOLDED. If no one is eliminated that day, resolves NO. If FOLDED ends before the listed day, it also resolves NO.


I will periodically add days to this market if the experiment continues for long enough.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

@mods no one was eliminated today. Evan had other FOLDED markets that close daily as well (there's a dashboard)

@SimonWestlake what do you suggest (as I do not think mods will want to close & reopen this daily). perhaps just set the close date to be far enough out, people can trade freely, & then do a batch of resolves later once folded ends? or what would be best?

@Ziddletwix Definitely valid.

Most of the markets only need resolution when something happens, and we can just ping the mods for resolution as-needed. The close dates can be set arbitrarily far out for those.

That leaves these three markets:
https://manifold.markets/evan/on-which-days-will-a-player-be-elim
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-folded-end
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play

https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play-NcZdpts5Oq

The first two should close on December 31st, and the third should close on October 31st. Regular resolution of past options is very helpful on these. Would the mods be willing to do weekly resolutions of expired options on them?

As a side note, I'd love to be the one to take over making new FOLDED markets once that becomes needed again, but I'm pretty strongly disincentivized from doing so as long as my own markets don't count towards league results. Last month, my net league profit was 3,463, and 1,421 of that was from FOLDED markets. I'd have gotten 10th place instead of 4th without the FOLDED profit.

@Ziddletwix Note that I've heavily edited my previous comment, you should refresh the page if you were already reading it

sold Ṁ1 YES
bought Ṁ100 NO

@SimonWestlake lol i was just pasting my screenshot :D

boughtṀ10 NO

@Kraalnaxx Well this was ironic :(

@SimonWestlake Want to talk in DMs?

what if someone on a day gets eliminated but voted back in???

@evan

@121 Hmm, I'm not sure. Will think about this

@121 I'm counting it.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@evan I think that's the right call since you literally couldn't check in for a day

@evan Everyone has checked in today

sold Ṁ0 YES

@SimonWestlake unfortunate, another day wasted without any progress

no one will be eliminated if the difficulty is not ramped up.

@evan Everyone's checked in today (except for Bandors who has never checked in and isn't a real player).

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy