For each option:
Resolves YES if at least one player fails to advance from the listed day of FOLDED. If no one is eliminated that day, resolves NO. If FOLDED ends before the listed day, it also resolves NO.
I will periodically add days to this market if the experiment continues for long enough.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ511 | |
| 2 | Ṁ468 | |
| 3 | Ṁ383 | |
| 4 | Ṁ334 | |
| 5 | Ṁ157 |
@Quroe I'm not following FOLDED can you please link to the places that support a Yes resolution (assuming you want the options resolved up to October 24, with 83/85/96 resolving Yes)
@shankypanky Absolutely! Here is the source truth. https://manifold.markets/post/folded-month-three#yPuR2ENC
@mods Can we get NO resolutions through September 20?
Same for these markets:
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-folded-end?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play-NcZdpts5Oq?r=U2ltb25XZXN0bGFrZQ
@SimonWestlake people should bet these down to 1%! (if ppl don't have the balance, can always ask for a loan).
~weekly resolutions is probably fine but it's a bit tedious so can't guarantee mods will always get to it, but can always ping i suppose
@Willfc609 Yes, he got a 1-week ban for making markets in a way that was worse in all ways except doubling his mana bonuses, and he responded by breaking the site. The admins had to roll back the database.
@mods no one was eliminated today. Evan had other FOLDED markets that close daily as well (there's a dashboard)
@SimonWestlake what do you suggest (as I do not think mods will want to close & reopen this daily). perhaps just set the close date to be far enough out, people can trade freely, & then do a batch of resolves later once folded ends? or what would be best?
@Ziddletwix Definitely valid.
Most of the markets only need resolution when something happens, and we can just ping the mods for resolution as-needed. The close dates can be set arbitrarily far out for those.
That leaves these three markets:
https://manifold.markets/evan/on-which-days-will-a-player-be-elim
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-folded-end
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play
https://manifold.markets/evan/when-will-the-folded-surviving-play-NcZdpts5Oq
The first two should close on December 31st, and the third should close on October 31st. Regular resolution of past options is very helpful on these. Would the mods be willing to do weekly resolutions of expired options on them?
As a side note, I'd love to be the one to take over making new FOLDED markets once that becomes needed again, but I'm pretty strongly disincentivized from doing so as long as my own markets don't count towards league results. Last month, my net league profit was 3,463, and 1,421 of that was from FOLDED markets. I'd have gotten 10th place instead of 4th without the FOLDED profit.
@Ziddletwix Note that I've heavily edited my previous comment, you should refresh the page if you were already reading it
@SimonWestlake oops didn't see these before, adjusted close dates (although having htem open too long isn't much of an issue anyways).
As a side note, I'd love to be the one to take over making new FOLDED markets once that becomes needed again, but I'm pretty strongly disincentivized from doing so as long as my own markets don't count towards league results.
I agree but FWIW this is supposed to change next month, as per the latest announcement.
