When will the FOLDED surviving player count reach 4?
14
1.5kแน€13k
resolved Oct 11
Resolved
NO
Day 46 or earlier (3 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 47 or earlier (4 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 48 or earlier (5 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 49 or earlier (6 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 50 or earlier (7 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 51 or earlier (8 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 52 or earlier (9 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 53 or earlier (10 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 54 or earlier (11 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 55 or earlier (12 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 56 or earlier (13 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 57 or earlier (14 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 58 or earlier (15 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 59 or earlier (16 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 60 or earlier (17 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 61 or earlier (18 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 62 or earlier (19 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 63 or earlier (20 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 64 or earlier (21 September 2025)
Resolved
NO
Day 65 or earlier (22 September 2025)

When the first day of FOLDED begins with four or fewer players remaining, each option resolves YES if that day of FOLDED was on or before the option's listed date in UTC.

If FOLDED continues to have more than four players past the listed date, the option will resolve NO.

The host does not count as a player.

I will periodically add days to this market if the no one gets eliminated for long enough.

As of September 12, 2025, there are 7 players remaining.

Fun
Manifold
Manifold Users
Manifold User Retention
Endurance Sports
FOLDED
Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€459
2แน€98
3แน€55
4แน€54
5แน€43

People are also trading

Sort by:

@mods Day 84 and later all resolve YES, the others resolve NO

@Stralor Thanks!

@mods I think we have enough information to resolve away.

bought แน€1 YES

@SimonWestlake Ha. I'm out of mana now. The rest is yours.

bought แน€100 NO

@Quroe

@SimonWestlake Hold up. Am I misinterpreting Oct 10?

@SimonWestlake I don't think I am.

@Quroe Yes. October 11 is the first day with a player count of 4.

@SimonWestlake Sigh. I guess I just about break even in this market then.

bought แน€180 YES

oof, sorry (but not lol)

@SimonWestlake The market giveth, and the market taketh away. That's on me.

@Quroe Yep. I lost a lot of mana on the extremely stealth announcement of GPT-5 Pro in the GPT-5 announcement stream

@SimonWestlake We all have a wound like that on our profit chart somewhere or another if we've been here long enough.

@Quroe 100%, that's just my most recent one

bought แน€10 YES

@mods Day 76 and earlier resolve NO

bought แน€83 NO

@mods Please resolve NO up to and including day 68 (25th September)

People are also trading

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTermsโ€ขPrivacy